Hilal El-Fasher vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 74+ matches
Hilal El-Fasher46%
Al-Ahly Merowe25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hilal El-Fasher creates 46% more chances
Season form · 74 home / 74 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hilal El-Fasher ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches
Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.20 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27
Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.87
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Hilal El-Fasher at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Al Merreikh
Al Khartoum
Hilal Obayed
Hay Al Wadi
Al Mourada
Alamal Atbara
Al Ahli KhartoumAl-Ahly Merowe
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Ahly Shendi
Al Shorta
Merreikh El-Fasher
Hay Al Arab
Al Hilal Kadougli
Wad Hashim Sennar
Al Rabta KostiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hilal El-Fasher host Al-Ahly Merowe on Friday, 24 June 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the Sudani Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Hilal El-Fasher vs Al-Ahly Merowe
Hilal El-Fasher and Al-Ahly Merowe drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on June 24, 2022.
The match was played at Altahrir Stadium in Khartoum North.