Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hilal Al-Quds vs Manama — AFC Cup 2018

Hilal Al-Quds
Hilal Al-Quds
CANC
13:00
Manama
Manama
10/26/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Faisal Al-Husseini International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hilal Al-Quds42%
×Draw28%
Manama30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Al-Quds
1.25
Manama
1.00

Hilal Al-Quds creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hilal Al-Quds
1.00
Manama
0.50

allows per match

Hilal Al-Quds
1.50
Manama
1.50

finishing

Hilal Al-Quds+0.00on par
Manama+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Al-Quds ↓

Manama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hilal Al-Quds or draw
70%
Hilal Al-Quds or Manama
72%
Draw or Manama
58%

Winning margin

Hilal Al-Quds wins by 2+
19%
Manama wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hilal Al-Quds 1+ goals
71%
Hilal Al-Quds 2+ goals
36%
Hilal Al-Quds 3+ goals
13%
Manama 1+ goals
63%
Manama 2+ goals
26%
Manama 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hilal Al-Quds (draw refunded)
59%
Manama (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Al-Quds at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Manama away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Al-Quds attack 1.00 + Manama defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manama attack 0.50 + Hilal Al-Quds defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hilal Al-Quds scores more
42%
level
28%
Manama scores more
30%

Hilal Al-Quds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hilal Al-Quds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hilal Al-Quds face Manama (AFC Cup)

AFC Cup returns with Hilal Al-Quds hosting Manama. Match starts October 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hilal Al-Quds host Manama at Faisal Al-Husseini International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.