Hilal Al-Quds 0–1 Al Suwaiq: Result & Stats

Hilal Al-Quds

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Suwaiq

1/22/2018

AFC Cup · Play-offs RoundArab American University Stadium (Jenin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hilal Al-Quds51%

×Draw23%

Al Suwaiq25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilal Al-QudsExpected goals in this matchAl Suwaiq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.18

Hilal Al-Quds

1.78

Al Suwaiq

1.18

Hilal Al-Quds creates 51% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.50

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Hilal Al-Quds

1.00

Al Suwaiq

0.86

allows per match

Hilal Al-Quds

1.50

Al Suwaiq

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilal Al-Quds+0.00on par

Al Suwaiq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Al-Quds ↓

Al Suwaiq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hilal Al-Quds or draw

75%

Hilal Al-Quds or Al Suwaiq

77%

Draw or Al Suwaiq

49%

Winning margin

Hilal Al-Quds wins by 2+

28%

Al Suwaiq wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hilal Al-Quds 1+ goals

83%

Hilal Al-Quds 2+ goals

53%

Hilal Al-Quds 3+ goals

26%

Al Suwaiq 1+ goals

69%

Al Suwaiq 2+ goals

33%

Al Suwaiq 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hilal Al-Quds (draw refunded)

67%

Al Suwaiq (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Al-Quds at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Al Suwaiq away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Al-Quds attack 1.00 + Al Suwaiq defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Al Suwaiq attack 0.86 + Hilal Al-Quds defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hilal Al-Quds scores more

51%

level

23%

Al Suwaiq scores more

25%

Hilal Al-Quds at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hilal Al-Quds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff