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Hilal Al-Quds vs Al Ahed — AFC Cup 2018

Hilal Al-Quds
Hilal Al-Quds
CANC
00:00
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
11/1/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5King Abdullah International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hilal Al-Quds29%
×Draw29%
Al Ahed42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Al-Quds
0.94
Al Ahed
1.19

Al Ahed creates 27% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hilal Al-Quds
1.00
Al Ahed
0.88

allows per match

Hilal Al-Quds
1.50
Al Ahed
0.88

finishing

Hilal Al-Quds+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Al-Quds ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hilal Al-Quds or draw
58%
Hilal Al-Quds or Al Ahed
71%
Draw or Al Ahed
71%

Winning margin

Hilal Al-Quds wins by 2+
10%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hilal Al-Quds 1+ goals
61%
Hilal Al-Quds 2+ goals
24%
Hilal Al-Quds 3+ goals
7%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
70%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
33%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hilal Al-Quds (draw refunded)
41%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Al-Quds at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Al-Quds attack 1.00 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Al Ahed attack 0.88 + Hilal Al-Quds defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hilal Al-Quds scores more
29%
level
29%
Al Ahed scores more
42%

Al Ahed at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hilal Al-Quds host Al Ahed

November 1, 2020: Hilal Al-Quds take on Al Ahed in AFC Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hilal Al-Quds host Al Ahed at King Abdullah International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.