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HIK vs Vendsyssel FF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
5/30/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

HIK32%
×Draw25%
Vendsyssel FF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.32
Vendsyssel FF
1.56

Vendsyssel FF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 16 away

creates per match

HIK
1.39
Vendsyssel FF
1.56

allows per match

HIK
1.57
Vendsyssel FF
1.25

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

HIK or draw
57%
HIK or Vendsyssel FF
75%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
68%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
14%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
73%
HIK 2+ goals
38%
HIK 3+ goals
15%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
79%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
46%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
43%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 82 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.39 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.56 + HIK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

HIK scores more
32%
level
25%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
43%

Vendsyssel FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: HIK 4–3 Vendsyssel FF

HIK beat Vendsyssel FF 4-3 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 30, 2026.