Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HIK vs KaaPo — Suomen Cup 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
0 – 6
KaaPo
KaaPo
4/2/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundRukki 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HIK0%
×Draw1%
KaaPo99%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
0.28
KaaPo
5.98

KaaPo creates 2036% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

HIK
0.00
KaaPo
4.29

allows per match

HIK
7.67
KaaPo
0.57

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–26%
0–311%
0–417%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–33%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–30%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (17%) · grid covers 47% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
79%21%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

HIK or draw
1%
HIK or KaaPo
99%
Draw or KaaPo
100%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
0%
KaaPo wins by 2+
95%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
24%
HIK 2+ goals
3%
HIK 3+ goals
0%
KaaPo 1+ goals
100%
KaaPo 2+ goals
97%
KaaPo 3+ goals
90%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
0%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 0.00, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

KaaPo away — creates 4.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 0.00 + KaaPo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.28

KaaPo attack 4.29 + HIK defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 5.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

HIK scores more
0%
level
1%
KaaPo scores more
99%

KaaPo at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "KaaPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIK vs KaaPo

KaaPo beat HIK 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 2, 2024.

The match was played at Rukki 1 Tekonurmi in Hanko.