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HIK vs Inter Turku II — Suomen Cup 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
0 – 14
Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
3/18/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTurku Energia Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HIK2%
×Draw4%
Inter Turku II94%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.35
Inter Turku II
7.12

Inter Turku II creates 427% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

HIK
0.00
Inter Turku II
6.57

allows per match

HIK
7.67
Inter Turku II
2.71

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Inter Turku II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–33%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–22%
1–34%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–33%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 37% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
98%2%3.5
93%7%4.5
82%18%

Double chance

HIK or draw
6%
HIK or Inter Turku II
96%
Draw or Inter Turku II
98%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
1%
Inter Turku II wins by 2+
86%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
74%
HIK 2+ goals
39%
HIK 3+ goals
15%
Inter Turku II 1+ goals
100%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
98%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
94%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
2%
Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 0.00, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 6.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 0.00 + Inter Turku II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Inter Turku II attack 6.57 + HIK defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 7.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

HIK scores more
2%
level
4%
Inter Turku II scores more
94%

Inter Turku II at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HIK 0–14 Inter Turku II

Inter Turku II beat HIK 14-0 in Suomen Cup on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Turku Energia Areena in Turku.