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HIK vs Holbæk B&I — Friendlies Clubs 2026

HIK
HIK
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
Unknown 63'
Unknown 73', 69', 10'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

HIK45%
×Draw22%
Holbæk B&I33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.85
Holbæk B&I
1.56

HIK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

HIK
2.00
Holbæk B&I
1.50

allows per match

HIK
1.62
Holbæk B&I
1.70

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Holbæk B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Holbæk B&I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

HIK or draw
67%
HIK or Holbæk B&I
78%
Draw or Holbæk B&I
55%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
24%
Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
84%
HIK 2+ goals
55%
HIK 3+ goals
28%
Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
79%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
46%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
58%
Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Holbæk B&I away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 2.00 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.85

Holbæk B&I attack 1.50 + HIK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HIK scores more
45%
level
22%
Holbæk B&I scores more
33%

HIK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "HIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
63'
69'
73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: HIK 1–3 Holbæk B&I

Holbæk B&I beat HIK 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: ? (10', 63', 69', 73').