HIK 3–2 FC Helsingor: Result & Stats

HIK

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

FC Helsingor

D. Bagou 69' (pen)

M. Rasmussen 38', 15'

A. Diouf 77'

M. Brems 63'

11/7/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15Gentofte Sportspark Vest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

HIK37%

×Draw24%

FC Helsingor39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HIKExpected goals in this matchFC Helsingor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.52

HIK

1.48

FC Helsingor

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 40 away

1.39

creates per match

1.48

1.57

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

HIK

1.39

FC Helsingor

1.48

allows per match

HIK

1.57

FC Helsingor

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HIK+0.00on par

FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

FC Helsingor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

HIK or draw

61%

HIK or FC Helsingor

76%

Draw or FC Helsingor

63%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+

18%

FC Helsingor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals

77%

HIK 2+ goals

43%

HIK 3+ goals

19%

FC Helsingor 1+ goals

78%

FC Helsingor 2+ goals

45%

FC Helsingor 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)

49%

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 82 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.39 + FC Helsingor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Helsingor attack 1.48 + HIK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HIK scores more

37%

level

24%

FC Helsingor scores more

39%

FC Helsingor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Rasmussen

38'

M. Rasmussen

63'

M. Brems

69'

D. BagouPenalty

77'

A. Diouf

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff