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HIK vs Avarta — Friendlies Clubs 2026

HIK
HIK
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avarta
Avarta
Unknown 77', 64', 51', 15'
7/18/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HIK47%
×Draw24%
Avarta29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.65
Avarta
1.24

HIK creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

HIK
2.00
Avarta
0.86

allows per match

HIK
1.62
Avarta
1.29

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Avarta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Avarta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

HIK or draw
71%
HIK or Avarta
76%
Draw or Avarta
53%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
25%
Avarta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
81%
HIK 2+ goals
49%
HIK 3+ goals
23%
Avarta 1+ goals
71%
Avarta 2+ goals
35%
Avarta 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
62%
Avarta (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Avarta away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 2.00 + Avarta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Avarta attack 0.86 + HIK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

HIK scores more
47%
level
24%
Avarta scores more
29%

HIK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "HIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
51'
64'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIK vs Avarta

HIK beat Avarta 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2023.

Goals: ? (15', 51', 64', 77').