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HIK vs Avarta — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
1 – 1
Avarta
Avarta
8/3/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Gentofte Sportspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HIK34%
×Draw26%
Avarta41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.29
Avarta
1.45

Avarta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 13 away

creates per match

HIK
1.44
Avarta
1.31

allows per match

HIK
1.58
Avarta
1.15

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Avarta+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Avarta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

HIK or draw
59%
HIK or Avarta
74%
Draw or Avarta
66%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
15%
Avarta wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
72%
HIK 2+ goals
37%
HIK 3+ goals
14%
Avarta 1+ goals
77%
Avarta 2+ goals
42%
Avarta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
45%
Avarta (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

Avarta away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.44 + Avarta defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avarta attack 1.31 + HIK defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

HIK scores more
34%
level
26%
Avarta scores more
41%

Avarta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HIK 1 – 1 Avarta

HIK and Avarta drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Gentofte Sportspark in Gentofte.