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HIK vs Åland — Suomen Cup 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
0 – 3
Åland
Åland
2/12/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundWiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HIK1%
×Draw2%
Åland97%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
0.50
Åland
5.58

Åland creates 1016% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

HIK
0.00
Åland
3.50

allows per match

HIK
7.67
Åland
1.00

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Åland+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Åland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–25%
0–310%
0–414%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–35%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 51% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

HIK or draw
3%
HIK or Åland
98%
Draw or Åland
99%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
0%
Åland wins by 2+
91%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
39%
HIK 2+ goals
9%
HIK 3+ goals
1%
Åland 1+ goals
99%
Åland 2+ goals
96%
Åland 3+ goals
88%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
1%
Åland (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 0.00, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

Åland away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 0.00 + Åland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Åland attack 3.50 + HIK defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 5.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

HIK scores more
1%
level
2%
Åland scores more
97%

Åland at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Åland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIK vs Åland

Åland beat HIK 3-0 in Suomen Cup on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Åland.