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HIK vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
9/30/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9Gentofte Sportspark Vest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

HIK30%
×Draw25%
Aarhus Fremad45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.26
Aarhus Fremad
1.60

Aarhus Fremad creates 27% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

HIK
1.39
Aarhus Fremad
1.62

allows per match

HIK
1.57
Aarhus Fremad
1.13

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

HIK or draw
55%
HIK or Aarhus Fremad
75%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
70%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
13%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
72%
HIK 2+ goals
36%
HIK 3+ goals
13%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
80%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
47%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
40%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 82 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.39 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.62 + HIK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HIK scores more
30%
level
25%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
45%

Aarhus Fremad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: HIK 3–3 Aarhus Fremad

HIK and Aarhus Fremad drew 3-3 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Gentofte Sportspark Vest in Gentofte.