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Hiiumaa vs Tallinna Kalev — Cup 2026

Hiiumaa
Hiiumaa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalevadvanced
S. Laur 77' (OG)
E. Poopuu 72' (OG)
A. Šurõgin 64'
7/2/2025CupCup · Round of 64Kärdla linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hiiumaa12%
×Draw13%
Tallinna Kalev76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hiiumaa
1.46
Tallinna Kalev
3.67

Tallinna Kalev creates 151% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hiiumaa
1.67
Tallinna Kalev
4.00

allows per match

Hiiumaa
3.33
Tallinna Kalev
1.25

finishing

Hiiumaa+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hiiumaa ↓

Tallinna Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Hiiumaa or draw
24%
Hiiumaa or Tallinna Kalev
87%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
88%

Winning margin

Hiiumaa wins by 2+
5%
Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Hiiumaa 1+ goals
77%
Hiiumaa 2+ goals
43%
Hiiumaa 3+ goals
18%
Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
97%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
87%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Hiiumaa (draw refunded)
13%
Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hiiumaa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hiiumaa attack 1.67 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tallinna Kalev attack 4.00 + Hiiumaa defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hiiumaa scores more
12%
level
13%
Tallinna Kalev scores more
76%

Tallinna Kalev at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
A. Šurõgin
72'
E. PoopuuOwn goal
77'
S. LaurOwn goal
Hiiumaa
Tallinna
M. Degtjov
Manager: M. Degtjov
Alo Barengrub
Manager: Alo Barengrub

Cup: Hiiumaa 0–3 Tallinna Kalev

Tallinna Kalev beat Hiiumaa 3-0 in Cup on July 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Šurõgin (64'), E. Poopuu (72' o.g.), S. Laur (77' o.g.).

The match was played at Kärdla linnastaadion in Kärdla.