Hiiumaa 2–3 Tallinna FC Zapoos: Result & Stats

Hiiumaa

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tallinna FC Zapoos

K. Linder 72'

S. Karu 47'

M. Väljas 53' (pen)

O. Karlson 45', 24'

10/30/2024

Cup · Round of 16Hiiumaa spordikeskuse kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hiiumaa65%

×Draw15%

Tallinna FC Zapoos21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HiiumaaExpected goals in this matchTallinna FC Zapoos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.42

2.58

Hiiumaa

4.42

Tallinna FC Zapoos

2.58

Hiiumaa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

1.83

3.33

allows per match

7.17

creates per match

Hiiumaa

1.67

Tallinna FC Zapoos

1.83

allows per match

Hiiumaa

3.33

Tallinna FC Zapoos

7.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hiiumaa+0.00on par

Tallinna FC Zapoos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over96
Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hiiumaa ↓

Tallinna FC Zapoos →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–15%

4–26%

4–35%

4–43%

Most likely 4–2 (6%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

96%4%3.5

90%10%4.5

79%21%

Double chance

Hiiumaa or draw

79%

Hiiumaa or Tallinna FC Zapoos

85%

Draw or Tallinna FC Zapoos

35%

Winning margin

Hiiumaa wins by 2+

47%

Tallinna FC Zapoos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hiiumaa 1+ goals

99%

Hiiumaa 2+ goals

92%

Hiiumaa 3+ goals

78%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 1+ goals

92%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 2+ goals

72%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Hiiumaa (draw refunded)

76%

Tallinna FC Zapoos (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

90%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hiiumaa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Tallinna FC Zapoos away — creates 1.83, concedes 7.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hiiumaa attack 1.67 + Tallinna FC Zapoos defence 7.17 → ÷2 → 4.42

Tallinna FC Zapoos attack 1.83 + Hiiumaa defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hiiumaa scores more

65%

level

15%

Tallinna FC Zapoos scores more

21%

Hiiumaa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hiiumaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

O. Karlson

45'

O. Karlson

47'

S. Karu

53'

M. VäljasPenalty

60'

I. Nõulik← J. Saarnak

60'

K. Kütt← H. Sepma

62'

M. Naggel← K. Pohga

67'

J. Sarapuu← J. Orumaa

72'

K. Linder

75'

J. Sõmer← S. Karu

75'

M. Somp← N. Balanenkov

Hiiumaa

Tallinna

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Degtjov

60'▲I. Nõulik←▼J. Saarnak

60'▲K. Kütt←▼H. Sepma

75'▲J. Sõmer←▼S. Karu

Hiiumaa substitutes

NõulikKüttSõmerSuusterNiinemäeElissaarNaukas

Manager: H. Väljas

62'▲M. Naggel←▼K. Pohga

67'▲J. Sarapuu←▼J. Orumaa

75'▲M. Somp←▼N. Balanenkov

Tallinna FC Zapoos substitutes

NaggelSarapuuSomp

Cup: Hiiumaa 2–3 Tallinna FC Zapoos

Tallinna FC Zapoos beat Hiiumaa 3-2 in Cup on October 30, 2024.

Goals: O. Karlson (24', 45'), S. Karu (47'), M. Väljas (53' pen), K. Linder (72').

The match was played at Hiiumaa spordikeskuse kunstmuruväljak in Kärdla.

Hiiumaa vs Tallinna FC Zapoos — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Hiiumaa 2–3 Tallinna FC Zapoos