Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hiiumaa vs Keila — Cup 2026

Hiiumaa
Hiiumaa
FT
3 – 4
Keila
Keila
8/11/2020CupCup · 32nd FinalsKärdla linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hiiumaa42%
×Draw18%
Keila40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hiiumaa
2.83
Keila
2.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hiiumaa
1.67
Keila
2.20

allows per match

Hiiumaa
3.33
Keila
4.00

finishing

Hiiumaa+0.00on par
Keila+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hiiumaa ↓

Keila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Hiiumaa or draw
60%
Hiiumaa or Keila
82%
Draw or Keila
58%

Winning margin

Hiiumaa wins by 2+
25%
Keila wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hiiumaa 1+ goals
94%
Hiiumaa 2+ goals
77%
Hiiumaa 3+ goals
53%
Keila 1+ goals
94%
Keila 2+ goals
76%
Keila 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Hiiumaa (draw refunded)
51%
Keila (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hiiumaa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Keila away — creates 2.20, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hiiumaa attack 1.67 + Keila defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Keila attack 2.20 + Hiiumaa defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hiiumaa scores more
42%
level
18%
Keila scores more
40%

Hiiumaa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hiiumaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Hiiumaa 3–4 Keila

Keila beat Hiiumaa 4-3 in Cup on August 11, 2020.

The match was played at Kärdla linnastaadion in Kärdla.