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Highlands Park FC vs Stellenbosch — Premier Soccer League 2018

Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
1/11/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Makhulong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Highlands Park FC39%
×Draw29%
Stellenbosch32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlands Park FC
1.17
Stellenbosch
1.02

Highlands Park FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 104 away

creates per match

Highlands Park FC
1.33
Stellenbosch
1.01

allows per match

Highlands Park FC
1.03
Stellenbosch
1.01

finishing

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par
Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlands Park FC ↓

Stellenbosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Highlands Park FC or draw
68%
Highlands Park FC or Stellenbosch
71%
Draw or Stellenbosch
61%

Winning margin

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
17%
Stellenbosch wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
69%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
33%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
11%
Stellenbosch 1+ goals
64%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
27%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
55%
Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlands Park FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlands Park FC attack 1.33 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Highlands Park FC scores more
39%
level
29%
Stellenbosch scores more
32%

Highlands Park FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Highlands Park FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Highlands Park FC 1–4 Stellenbosch

Stellenbosch beat Highlands Park FC 4-1 in Premier Soccer League on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Makhulong Stadium in Tembisa.