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Highlands Park FC vs Bidvest Wits — Premier Soccer League 2018

Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
2/9/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 16Makhulong Stadium (Tembisa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Highlands Park FC33%
×Draw30%
Bidvest Wits37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlands Park FC
1.03
Bidvest Wits
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Highlands Park FC
1.33
Bidvest Wits
1.17

allows per match

Highlands Park FC
1.03
Bidvest Wits
0.73

finishing

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par
Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlands Park FC ↓

Bidvest Wits →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Highlands Park FC or draw
63%
Highlands Park FC or Bidvest Wits
70%
Draw or Bidvest Wits
67%

Winning margin

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
13%
Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
64%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
28%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
9%
Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
67%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
30%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
47%
Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlands Park FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlands Park FC attack 1.33 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Highlands Park FC scores more
33%
level
30%
Bidvest Wits scores more
37%

Bidvest Wits at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Highlands Park FC vs Bidvest Wits

Highlands Park FC beat Bidvest Wits 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Makhulong Stadium (Tembisa).