Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Highlanders vs Mhlume Peacemakers — Premier League 2020

Highlanders
Highlanders
FT
5 – 0
Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
8/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Highlanders68%
×Draw19%
Mhlume Peacemakers13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlanders
2.09
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.77

Highlanders creates 171% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Highlanders
1.58
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.53

allows per match

Highlanders
1.00
Mhlume Peacemakers
2.60

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par
Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Mhlume Peacemakers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw
87%
Highlanders or Mhlume Peacemakers
81%
Draw or Mhlume Peacemakers
32%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+
43%
Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals
88%
Highlanders 2+ goals
62%
Highlanders 3+ goals
34%
Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
54%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
18%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)
84%
Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Mhlume Peacemakers away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.58 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.09

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.53 + Highlanders defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Highlanders scores more
68%
level
19%
Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
13%

Highlanders at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Highlanders vs Mhlume Peacemakers

Highlanders beat Mhlume Peacemakers 5-0 in Premier League on August 4, 2021.

The match was played at Kalanga Stadium in Kalanga.