Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Highlanders vs Madlenya — Premier League 2020

Highlanders
Highlanders
FT
1 – 2
Madlenya
Madlenya
9/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Mhlume Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Highlanders56%
×Draw24%
Madlenya20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlanders
1.74
Madlenya
0.93

Highlanders creates 87% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Highlanders
1.58
Madlenya
0.85

allows per match

Highlanders
1.00
Madlenya
1.90

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par
Madlenya+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Madlenya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw
80%
Highlanders or Madlenya
76%
Draw or Madlenya
44%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+
32%
Madlenya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals
82%
Highlanders 2+ goals
52%
Highlanders 3+ goals
25%
Madlenya 1+ goals
61%
Madlenya 2+ goals
24%
Madlenya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)
74%
Madlenya (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Madlenya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.90 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.58 + Madlenya defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.74

Madlenya attack 0.85 + Highlanders defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Highlanders scores more
56%
level
24%
Madlenya scores more
20%

Highlanders at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Highlanders 1–2 Madlenya

Madlenya beat Highlanders 2-1 in Premier League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Mhlume Stadium in Siteki.