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Highlanders vs Denver — Premier League 2020

Highlanders
Highlanders
FT
2 – 0
Denver
Denver
4/10/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Highlanders47%
×Draw28%
Denver26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlanders
1.36
Denver
0.93

Highlanders creates 46% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Highlanders
1.58
Denver
0.85

allows per match

Highlanders
1.00
Denver
1.15

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw
74%
Highlanders or Denver
72%
Draw or Denver
53%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+
22%
Denver wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals
74%
Highlanders 2+ goals
39%
Highlanders 3+ goals
16%
Denver 1+ goals
61%
Denver 2+ goals
24%
Denver 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)
65%
Denver (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Denver away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.58 + Denver defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Denver attack 0.85 + Highlanders defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Highlanders scores more
47%
level
28%
Denver scores more
26%

Highlanders at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Highlanders vs Denver

Highlanders beat Denver 2-0 in Premier League on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Kalanga Stadium in Kalanga.