Highlanders 2–2 Cranborne Bullets: Result & Stats

Highlanders

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cranborne Bullets

4/10/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 11Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Highlanders51%

×Draw30%

Cranborne Bullets19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HighlandersExpected goals in this matchCranborne Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.64

Highlanders

1.23

Cranborne Bullets

0.64

Highlanders creates 92% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 34 away

1.15

creates per match

0.71

0.56

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Highlanders

1.15

Cranborne Bullets

0.71

allows per match

Highlanders

0.56

Cranborne Bullets

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Cranborne Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw

81%

Highlanders or Cranborne Bullets

70%

Draw or Cranborne Bullets

49%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+

23%

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals

71%

Highlanders 2+ goals

35%

Highlanders 3+ goals

13%

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals

47%

Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals

14%

Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)

72%

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.56 · 96 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.15 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Highlanders defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Highlanders scores more

51%

level

30%

Cranborne Bullets scores more

19%

Highlanders at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff