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Highlanders vs Chapungu United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Highlanders
Highlanders
FT
1 – 0
Chapungu United
Chapungu United
8/7/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Highlanders45%
×Draw35%
Chapungu United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlanders
0.98
Chapungu United
0.55

Highlanders creates 78% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Highlanders
1.15
Chapungu United
0.53

allows per match

Highlanders
0.56
Chapungu United
0.82

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par
Chapungu United+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Chapungu United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw
80%
Highlanders or Chapungu United
65%
Draw or Chapungu United
55%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+
17%
Chapungu United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals
62%
Highlanders 2+ goals
26%
Highlanders 3+ goals
8%
Chapungu United 1+ goals
42%
Chapungu United 2+ goals
11%
Chapungu United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)
69%
Chapungu United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.56 · 96 matches

Chapungu United away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.15 + Chapungu United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Chapungu United attack 0.53 + Highlanders defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Highlanders scores more
45%
level
35%
Chapungu United scores more
20%

Highlanders at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Highlanders 1–0 Chapungu United

Highlanders beat Chapungu United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 7, 2019.

The match was played at Barbourfields Stadium in Bulawayo.