Highlanders 1–2 CAPS United: Result & Stats

Highlanders

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CAPS United

4/26/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 9Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Highlanders44%

×Draw31%

CAPS United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HighlandersExpected goals in this matchCAPS United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.79

Highlanders

1.15

CAPS United

0.79

Highlanders creates 46% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

1.15

creates per match

1.02

0.56

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Highlanders

1.15

CAPS United

1.02

allows per match

Highlanders

0.56

CAPS United

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par

CAPS United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

CAPS United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw

75%

Highlanders or CAPS United

69%

Draw or CAPS United

56%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+

19%

CAPS United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals

68%

Highlanders 2+ goals

32%

Highlanders 3+ goals

11%

CAPS United 1+ goals

55%

CAPS United 2+ goals

19%

CAPS United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)

64%

CAPS United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.56 · 96 matches

CAPS United away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.15 + CAPS United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

CAPS United attack 1.02 + Highlanders defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Highlanders scores more

44%

level

31%

CAPS United scores more

25%

Highlanders at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff