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Highlanders vs Bulawayo City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Highlanders
Highlanders
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
7/24/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Highlanders53%
×Draw32%
Bulawayo City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlanders
1.14
Bulawayo City
0.47

Highlanders creates 143% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

creates per match

Highlanders
1.15
Bulawayo City
0.38

allows per match

Highlanders
0.56
Bulawayo City
1.13

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par
Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Bulawayo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw
85%
Highlanders or Bulawayo City
68%
Draw or Bulawayo City
47%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+
23%
Bulawayo City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals
68%
Highlanders 2+ goals
32%
Highlanders 3+ goals
11%
Bulawayo City 1+ goals
37%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
8%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)
78%
Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.56 · 96 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.15 + Bulawayo City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bulawayo City attack 0.38 + Highlanders defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Highlanders scores more
53%
level
32%
Bulawayo City scores more
15%

Highlanders at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Highlanders vs Bulawayo City

Highlanders beat Bulawayo City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Barbourfields Stadium in Bulawayo.