Highlanders 1–0 Black Rhinos: Result & Stats

Highlanders

FT

1 – 0

Black Rhinos

8/10/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 18Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Highlanders47%

×Draw33%

Black Rhinos21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HighlandersExpected goals in this matchBlack Rhinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.61

Highlanders

1.08

Black Rhinos

0.61

Highlanders creates 77% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 51 away

1.15

creates per match

0.67

0.56

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Highlanders

1.15

Black Rhinos

0.67

allows per match

Highlanders

0.56

Black Rhinos

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par

Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Black Rhinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw

79%

Highlanders or Black Rhinos

67%

Draw or Black Rhinos

53%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+

19%

Black Rhinos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals

66%

Highlanders 2+ goals

29%

Highlanders 3+ goals

10%

Black Rhinos 1+ goals

46%

Black Rhinos 2+ goals

13%

Black Rhinos 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)

69%

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.56 · 96 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.15 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Highlanders defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Highlanders scores more

47%

level

33%

Black Rhinos scores more

21%

Highlanders at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff