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HIFK Helsinki vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkönen 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
9/2/2023YkkönenYkkönen · Round 22Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

HIFK Helsinki54%
×Draw23%
SJK Akatemia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.79
SJK Akatemia
1.09

HIFK Helsinki creates 64% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 39 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.63
SJK Akatemia
1.23

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
0.96
SJK Akatemia
1.95

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
77%
HIFK Helsinki or SJK Akatemia
77%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
46%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
30%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
83%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
53%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
26%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
66%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
30%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
70%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.63 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

SJK Akatemia attack 1.23 + HIFK Helsinki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
54%
level
23%
SJK Akatemia scores more
23%

HIFK Helsinki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIFK Helsinki vs SJK Akatemia

SJK Akatemia beat HIFK Helsinki 2-1 in Ykkönen on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.