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HIFK Helsinki vs SJK — Veikkausliiga 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SJK
SJK
A. Hernández 90+4'
V. Tikkanen 18' (OG)
D. Oliynyk 78'
A. Ngueukam 66'
10/16/2021VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Championship Round - 2Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HIFK Helsinki32%
×Draw26%
SJK42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.23
SJK
1.46

SJK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 120 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.08
SJK
1.20

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.71
SJK
1.39

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
SJK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

SJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
58%
HIFK Helsinki or SJK
74%
Draw or SJK
68%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
13%
SJK wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
71%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
35%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
13%
SJK 1+ goals
77%
SJK 2+ goals
43%
SJK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
43%
SJK (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

SJK away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + SJK defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

SJK attack 1.20 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
32%
level
26%
SJK scores more
42%

SJK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Moshtagh Yaghoubi
18'
V. TikkanenOwn goal
36'
Mehmet Hetemaj
46'
D. Håkans← J. Arthur
53'
Rodrigo Arciero
61'
Sakari Mattila
66'
A. Ngueukam
67'
Felipe Saez
73'
Juanan Entrena← J. Ali
73'
B. Wilson← P. Hannola
78'
D. Oliynyk
83'
Ville Tikkanen
84'
A. Kujanpää← K. Isaksson
85'
G. Backaliden← R. Arciero
89'
Gustaf Backaliden
90'
Brandon Wilson
90+2'
V. Olsbo← V. Tikkanen
90+4'
A. Hernández

Possession

45%HIFK

Shots

8HIFK

Statistics

HIFKSJK
Overview
45%Possession55%
8Total Shots11
3Corners4
12Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots11
7On Target3
1Off Target8
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Veikkausliiga: HIFK Helsinki 2–2 SJK

HIFK Helsinki and SJK drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on October 16, 2021.

Goals: V. Tikkanen (18' o.g.), A. Ngueukam (66'), D. Oliynyk (78'), A. Hernández (90+4').

SJK controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.