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HIFK Helsinki vs PuiU Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
PuiU Helsinki
PuiU Helsinki
5/6/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundVäinämöisen kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

HIFK Helsinki11%
×Draw14%
PuiU Helsinki75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.15
PuiU Helsinki
3.06

PuiU Helsinki creates 166% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.30
PuiU Helsinki
4.22

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.90
PuiU Helsinki
1.00

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

PuiU Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
25%
HIFK Helsinki or PuiU Helsinki
86%
Draw or PuiU Helsinki
89%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
4%
PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
68%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
32%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
11%
PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals
95%
PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals
80%
PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
13%
PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

PuiU Helsinki away — creates 4.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.30 + PuiU Helsinki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

PuiU Helsinki attack 4.22 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
11%
level
14%
PuiU Helsinki scores more
75%

PuiU Helsinki at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "PuiU Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HIFK Helsinki 2–0 PuiU Helsinki

HIFK Helsinki beat PuiU Helsinki 2-0 in Suomen Cup on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Väinämöisen kenttä in Helsinki.