HIFK Helsinki 3–2 KPV Kokkola: Result & Stats

HIFK Helsinki

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

KPV Kokkola

8/9/2019

Veikkausliiga · Round 19Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

HIFK Helsinki38%

×Draw25%

KPV Kokkola37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HIFK HelsinkiExpected goals in this matchKPV Kokkola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.46

HIFK Helsinki

1.47

KPV Kokkola

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

1.21

1.71

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki

1.08

KPV Kokkola

1.21

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki

1.71

KPV Kokkola

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

KPV Kokkola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw

63%

HIFK Helsinki or KPV Kokkola

75%

Draw or KPV Kokkola

62%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

18%

KPV Kokkola wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

77%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

43%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

18%

KPV Kokkola 1+ goals

77%

KPV Kokkola 2+ goals

43%

KPV Kokkola 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

50%

KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

KPV Kokkola attack 1.21 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more

38%

level

25%

KPV Kokkola scores more

37%

HIFK Helsinki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff