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HIFK Helsinki vs Kooteepee — Ykkönen 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kooteepee
Kooteepee
10/6/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 13Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

HIFK Helsinki44%
×Draw24%
Kooteepee31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.61
Kooteepee
1.32

HIFK Helsinki creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 52 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.63
Kooteepee
1.69

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
0.96
Kooteepee
1.60

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Kooteepee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
69%
HIFK Helsinki or Kooteepee
76%
Draw or Kooteepee
56%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
23%
Kooteepee wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
80%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
48%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
22%
Kooteepee 1+ goals
73%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
38%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
58%
Kooteepee (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.63 + Kooteepee defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kooteepee attack 1.69 + HIFK Helsinki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
44%
level
24%
Kooteepee scores more
31%

HIFK Helsinki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIFK Helsinki vs Kooteepee

HIFK Helsinki beat Kooteepee 1-0 in Ykkönen on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki).