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HIFK Helsinki vs JäPS — Suomen Cup 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
JäPS
JäPSadvanced
5/13/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 32Toolon Pallokentta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

HIFK Helsinki16%
×Draw18%
JäPS66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.19
JäPS
2.56

JäPS creates 115% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.30
JäPS
3.23

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.90
JäPS
1.08

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
34%
HIFK Helsinki or JäPS
82%
Draw or JäPS
84%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
6%
JäPS wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
70%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
33%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
12%
JäPS 1+ goals
92%
JäPS 2+ goals
72%
JäPS 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
19%
JäPS (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

JäPS away — creates 3.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.30 + JäPS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

JäPS attack 3.23 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
16%
level
18%
JäPS scores more
66%

JäPS at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HIFK Helsinki 1–3 JäPS

JäPS beat HIFK Helsinki 3-1 in Suomen Cup on May 13, 2026.

The match was played at Toolon Pallokentta in Helsinki.