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HIFK Helsinki vs Haka — Veikkausliiga 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Haka
Haka
S. Zarokostas 69'
L. Erwin 38'
7/9/2022VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 13Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HIFK Helsinki34%
×Draw25%
Haka41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.33
Haka
1.48

Haka creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.08
Haka
1.25

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.71
Haka
1.58

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
59%
HIFK Helsinki or Haka
75%
Draw or Haka
66%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
15%
Haka wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
74%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
38%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
15%
Haka 1+ goals
77%
Haka 2+ goals
43%
Haka 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
45%
Haka (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Haka away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Haka defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Haka attack 1.25 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
34%
level
25%
Haka scores more
41%

Haka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Lutumba-Pitah← J. Ali
16'
Wilfried Kanon
23'
I. Ani← W. Kanon
38'
L. Erwin
45+2'
Jani Bäckman
46'
Jesse Nikki
61'
S. Zarokostas← O. Whyte
69'
S. Zarokostas
70'
T. Purme← E. Collin
70'
S. Ojala← D. Açka
71'
A. Kujanpää← J. Bäckman
71'
F. Namputu← M. Tainio
84'
O. Laaksonen← L. Rogerson
89'
Ifeanyi Ani
90+2'
Fortuna Namputu

Possession

50%HIFK

Shots

6HIFK

Statistics

HIFKHaka
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Total Shots15
5Corners8
14Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots15
2On Target6
3Off Target5
1Blocked4
Passing
50%Possession50%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls11
5Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: HIFK Helsinki vs Haka

Haka beat HIFK Helsinki 2-0 in Veikkausliiga on July 9, 2022.

Goals: L. Erwin (38'), S. Zarokostas (69').

HIFK Helsinki controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.