HIFK Helsinki 3–2 Atlantis / PM: Result & Stats

HIFK Helsinki

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atlantis / PM

4/12/2025

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundVäinämöisen kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HIFK Helsinki10%

×Draw13%

Atlantis / PM78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HIFK HelsinkiExpected goals in this matchAtlantis / PM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

3.33

HIFK Helsinki

1.15

Atlantis / PM

3.33

Atlantis / PM creates 190% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.30

creates per match

4.75

1.90

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki

1.30

Atlantis / PM

4.75

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki

1.90

Atlantis / PM

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Atlantis / PM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Atlantis / PM →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw

22%

HIFK Helsinki or Atlantis / PM

87%

Draw or Atlantis / PM

90%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

Atlantis / PM wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

68%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

32%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

11%

Atlantis / PM 1+ goals

96%

Atlantis / PM 2+ goals

84%

Atlantis / PM 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

11%

Atlantis / PM (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Atlantis / PM away — creates 4.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.30 + Atlantis / PM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atlantis / PM attack 4.75 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more

10%

level

13%

Atlantis / PM scores more

78%

Atlantis / PM at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Atlantis / PM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff