HIFK Helsinki 2–2 AC Kajaani: Result & Stats

HIFK Helsinki

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

AC Kajaani

8/19/2018

Ykkönen · Round 10Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

HIFK Helsinki52%

×Draw22%

AC Kajaani26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HIFK HelsinkiExpected goals in this matchAC Kajaani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.30

HIFK Helsinki

1.91

AC Kajaani

1.30

HIFK Helsinki creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 39 away

1.63

creates per match

1.64

0.96

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki

1.63

AC Kajaani

1.64

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki

0.96

AC Kajaani

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

AC Kajaani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw

74%

HIFK Helsinki or AC Kajaani

78%

Draw or AC Kajaani

48%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

29%

AC Kajaani wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

85%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

57%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

30%

AC Kajaani 1+ goals

73%

AC Kajaani 2+ goals

37%

AC Kajaani 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

66%

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.63 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.91

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + HIFK Helsinki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more

52%

level

22%

AC Kajaani scores more

26%

HIFK Helsinki at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff