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HIFK 3 vs TiPS — Suomen Cup 2018

HIFK 3
HIFK 3
FT
2 – 5
TiPS
TiPS
2/27/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HIFK 35%
×Draw7%
TiPS89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK 3
1.38
TiPS
5.38

TiPS creates 290% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

HIFK 3
0.75
TiPS
6.75

allows per match

HIFK 3
4.00
TiPS
2.00

finishing

HIFK 3+0.00on par
TiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK 3 ↓

TiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–34%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 53% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
72%28%

Double chance

HIFK 3 or draw
11%
HIFK 3 or TiPS
93%
Draw or TiPS
95%

Winning margin

HIFK 3 wins by 2+
2%
TiPS wins by 2+
77%

Team goals

HIFK 3 1+ goals
75%
HIFK 3 2+ goals
40%
HIFK 3 3+ goals
16%
TiPS 1+ goals
99%
TiPS 2+ goals
96%
TiPS 3+ goals
86%

Draw no bet

HIFK 3 (draw refunded)
5%
TiPS (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK 3 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

TiPS away — creates 6.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK 3 attack 0.75 + TiPS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

TiPS attack 6.75 + HIFK 3 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 5.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

HIFK 3 scores more
5%
level
7%
TiPS scores more
89%

TiPS at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "TiPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIFK 3 vs TiPS

TiPS beat HIFK 3 5-2 in Suomen Cup on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.