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HIFK 2 vs KaaPo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

HIFK 2
HIFK 2
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KaaPo
KaaPo
5/25/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 11Töölön Pallokenttä (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

HIFK 237%
×Draw23%
KaaPo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK 2
1.64
KaaPo
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 53 away

creates per match

HIFK 2
1.36
KaaPo
1.57

allows per match

HIFK 2
1.82
KaaPo
1.91

finishing

HIFK 2+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK 2 ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HIFK 2 or draw
60%
HIFK 2 or KaaPo
77%
Draw or KaaPo
63%

Winning margin

HIFK 2 wins by 2+
19%
KaaPo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

HIFK 2 1+ goals
81%
HIFK 2 2+ goals
49%
HIFK 2 3+ goals
23%
KaaPo 1+ goals
82%
KaaPo 2+ goals
51%
KaaPo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

HIFK 2 (draw refunded)
48%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

KaaPo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK 2 attack 1.36 + KaaPo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.64

KaaPo attack 1.57 + HIFK 2 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HIFK 2 scores more
37%
level
23%
KaaPo scores more
40%

KaaPo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KaaPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: HIFK 2 3–2 KaaPo

HIFK 2 beat KaaPo 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 25, 2018.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä (Helsinki).