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Hieho vs VJS II — Suomen Cup 2018

Hieho
Hieho
FT
0 – 5
VJS II
VJS II
2/18/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundTöölön Pallokenttä 6 tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hieho4%
×Draw6%
VJS II90%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hieho
1.13
VJS II
4.96

VJS II creates 339% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hieho
1.40
VJS II
4.71

allows per match

Hieho
5.20
VJS II
0.86

finishing

Hieho+0.00on par
VJS II+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hieho ↓

VJS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–24%
0–36%
0–47%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Hieho or draw
10%
Hieho or VJS II
94%
Draw or VJS II
96%

Winning margin

Hieho wins by 2+
1%
VJS II wins by 2+
78%

Team goals

Hieho 1+ goals
68%
Hieho 2+ goals
31%
Hieho 3+ goals
11%
VJS II 1+ goals
99%
VJS II 2+ goals
95%
VJS II 3+ goals
83%

Draw no bet

Hieho (draw refunded)
4%
VJS II (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hieho at home — creates 1.40, concedes 5.20 · 5 matches

VJS II away — creates 4.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hieho attack 1.40 + VJS II defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

VJS II attack 4.71 + Hieho defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 4.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Hieho scores more
4%
level
6%
VJS II scores more
90%

VJS II at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "VJS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Hieho 0–5 VJS II

VJS II beat Hieho 5-0 in Suomen Cup on February 18, 2022.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä 6 tn in Helsinki.