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Hieho vs Kirkkonummi — Suomen Cup 2018

Hieho
Hieho
FT
4 – 2
Kirkkonummi
Kirkkonummi
2/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hieho6%
×Draw8%
Kirkkonummi85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hieho
1.45
Kirkkonummi
4.85

Kirkkonummi creates 234% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hieho
1.40
Kirkkonummi
4.50

allows per match

Hieho
5.20
Kirkkonummi
1.50

finishing

Hieho+0.00on par
Kirkkonummi+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hieho ↓

Kirkkonummi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–34%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Hieho or draw
15%
Hieho or Kirkkonummi
92%
Draw or Kirkkonummi
94%

Winning margin

Hieho wins by 2+
2%
Kirkkonummi wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

Hieho 1+ goals
77%
Hieho 2+ goals
42%
Hieho 3+ goals
18%
Kirkkonummi 1+ goals
99%
Kirkkonummi 2+ goals
94%
Kirkkonummi 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Hieho (draw refunded)
7%
Kirkkonummi (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hieho at home — creates 1.40, concedes 5.20 · 5 matches

Kirkkonummi away — creates 4.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hieho attack 1.40 + Kirkkonummi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kirkkonummi attack 4.50 + Hieho defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 4.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Hieho scores more
6%
level
8%
Kirkkonummi scores more
85%

Kirkkonummi at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Kirkkonummi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hieho vs Kirkkonummi

Hieho beat Kirkkonummi 4-2 in Suomen Cup on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Töölö PK 3 TN in Helsinki.