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Hidasnémeti vs Újpest II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Újpest II
Újpest II
4/24/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 32Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti24%
×Draw22%
Újpest II54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hidasnémeti
1.20
Újpest II
1.90

Újpest II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hidasnémeti
0.89
Újpest II
1.26

allows per match

Hidasnémeti
2.53
Újpest II
1.50

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw
46%
Hidasnémeti or Újpest II
78%
Draw or Újpest II
76%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
10%
Újpest II wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
70%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
34%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
12%
Újpest II 1+ goals
85%
Újpest II 2+ goals
56%
Újpest II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
31%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Újpest II attack 1.26 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more
24%
level
22%
Újpest II scores more
54%

Újpest II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Hidasnémeti 0–4 Újpest II

Újpest II beat Hidasnémeti 4-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Hidasnémeti Sportpálya in Hidasnémeti.