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Hidasnémeti vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
M. Gaal 33', 8'
B. Barna 21'
4/13/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 30Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti24%
×Draw22%
Tiszafuredi VSE54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hidasnémeti
1.26
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.99

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hidasnémeti
0.89
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Hidasnémeti
2.53
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw
46%
Hidasnémeti or Tiszafuredi VSE
78%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
76%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
10%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
72%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
36%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
13%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
86%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
59%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
31%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more
24%
level
22%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
54%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Gaal
21'
B. Barna
33'
M. Gaal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Hidasnémeti 2–1 Tiszafuredi VSE

Hidasnémeti beat Tiszafuredi VSE 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 13, 2022.

Goals: M. Gaal (8', 33'), B. Barna (21').

The match was played at Hidasnémeti Sportpálya in Hidasnémeti.