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Hidasnémeti vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
12/5/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 20Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti22%
×Draw21%
Putnok VSE57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hidasnémeti
1.22
Putnok VSE
2.08

Putnok VSE creates 70% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hidasnémeti
0.89
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

Hidasnémeti
2.53
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw
43%
Hidasnémeti or Putnok VSE
79%
Draw or Putnok VSE
78%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
9%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
70%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
34%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
12%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
87%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
61%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
28%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.22

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more
22%
level
21%
Putnok VSE scores more
57%

Putnok VSE at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Hidasnémeti 0–0 Putnok VSE

Hidasnémeti and Putnok VSE drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Hidasnémeti Sportpálya in Hidasnémeti.