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Hidasnémeti vs Jászberényi Vasas — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
FT
1 – 1
Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
8/11/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 2Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti32%
×Draw22%
Jászberényi Vasas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hidasnémeti
1.55
Jászberényi Vasas
1.86

Jászberényi Vasas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hidasnémeti
0.89
Jászberényi Vasas
1.20

allows per match

Hidasnémeti
2.53
Jászberényi Vasas
2.21

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par
Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Jászberényi Vasas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw
55%
Hidasnémeti or Jászberényi Vasas
78%
Draw or Jászberényi Vasas
68%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
15%
Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
79%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
46%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
20%
Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
84%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
55%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
42%
Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Jászberényi Vasas away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.55

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.20 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more
32%
level
22%
Jászberényi Vasas scores more
45%

Jászberényi Vasas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jászberényi Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Hidasnémeti 1–1 Jászberényi Vasas

Hidasnémeti and Jászberényi Vasas drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Hidasnémeti Sportpálya in Hidasnémeti.