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Hidasnémeti vs Füzesgyarmati — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
5/29/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 38Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti26%
×Draw23%
Füzesgyarmati52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hidasnémeti
1.26
Füzesgyarmati
1.88

Füzesgyarmati creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Hidasnémeti
0.89
Füzesgyarmati
1.24

allows per match

Hidasnémeti
2.53
Füzesgyarmati
1.63

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par
Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Füzesgyarmati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw
48%
Hidasnémeti or Füzesgyarmati
77%
Draw or Füzesgyarmati
74%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
11%
Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
72%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
36%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
13%
Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
85%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
56%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
33%
Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.24 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more
26%
level
23%
Füzesgyarmati scores more
52%

Füzesgyarmati at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Hidasnémeti 1–3 Füzesgyarmati

Füzesgyarmati beat Hidasnémeti 3-1 in NB III - Northeast on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Hidasnémeti Sportpálya in Hidasnémeti.