Hibernians 1–1 Valletta FC: Result & Stats

Hibernians

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valletta FC

Miullen 75'

S. Radic 60'

2/28/2026

League #393 · Second Stage - Main - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hibernians25%

×Draw25%

Valletta FC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HiberniansExpected goals in this matchValletta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.58

Hibernians

1.03

Valletta FC

1.58

Valletta FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.39

creates per match

1.78

1.39

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Hibernians

1.39

Valletta FC

1.78

allows per match

Hibernians

1.39

Valletta FC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hibernians+0.00on par

Valletta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernians ↓

Valletta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hibernians or draw

50%

Hibernians or Valletta FC

75%

Draw or Valletta FC

75%

Winning margin

Hibernians wins by 2+

9%

Valletta FC wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Hibernians 1+ goals

64%

Hibernians 2+ goals

28%

Hibernians 3+ goals

9%

Valletta FC 1+ goals

79%

Valletta FC 2+ goals

47%

Valletta FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hibernians (draw refunded)

33%

Valletta FC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernians at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Valletta FC away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernians attack 1.39 + Valletta FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Valletta FC attack 1.78 + Hibernians defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hibernians scores more

25%

level

25%

Valletta FC scores more

50%

Valletta FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Valletta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

52'

56'

59'

60'

66'

66'

Cleiton← B. Kristensen

75'

75'

75'

78'

80'

80'

N. Micallef← A. Adebayo

80'

S. Meijer← Y. Yankam

85'

E. Mbende

90'

M. Ellul← D. Bonnici

Hibernians

Valletta

90

Adilson

4

▼

10

11

19

20

▼

Yankam

29

▼

Adebayo

33

Mbende

50

Yuri

55

⚽

77

1

5

8

9

⚽

Miullen

11

▼

Kristense

16

Charlesto

19

Attard

20

▼

Diakite

22

▼

Bonnici

29

▼

Lima

44

Pedrao

Manager: Branko Nisevic

66'▲L. Caruana←▼M. Lima

66'▲Cleiton←▼B. Kristensen

78'▲S. Alfred←▼Diakite

90'▲M. Ellul←▼D. Bonnici

Hibernians substitutes

30Sacco4Alfred6Caruana7Cleiton13Debattista15Zammit17Hernandez18Abela21Muscat23Ellul99Akinbule

Manager: Thane Micallef

80'▲A. Zammit←▼S. Borg

80'▲N. Micallef←▼A. Adebayo

80'▲S. Meijer←▼Y. Yankam

Valletta FC substitutes

1Archibald13Frendo3Ellul5Nasar8Zammit17Grech18Ohaka31Melillo44Micallef98Mendoza99Meijer