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Hibernians vs Qala Saints — FA Trophy 2020

Hibernians
Hibernians
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qala Saints
Qala Saints
1/14/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · 1st RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hibernians63%
×Draw20%
Qala Saints17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernians
2.20
Qala Saints
1.04

Hibernians creates 112% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hibernians
2.89
Qala Saints
1.75

allows per match

Hibernians
0.33
Qala Saints
1.50

finishing

Hibernians+0.00on par
Qala Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernians ↓

Qala Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hibernians or draw
83%
Hibernians or Qala Saints
80%
Draw or Qala Saints
37%

Winning margin

Hibernians wins by 2+
40%
Qala Saints wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hibernians 1+ goals
89%
Hibernians 2+ goals
64%
Hibernians 3+ goals
37%
Qala Saints 1+ goals
65%
Qala Saints 2+ goals
28%
Qala Saints 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hibernians (draw refunded)
79%
Qala Saints (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernians at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Qala Saints away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernians attack 2.89 + Qala Saints defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.20

Qala Saints attack 1.75 + Hibernians defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hibernians scores more
63%
level
20%
Qala Saints scores more
17%

Hibernians at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hibernians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hibernians vs Qala Saints

Hibernians beat Qala Saints 2-0 in FA Trophy on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.