Hibernians 3–2 Naxxar Lions: Result & Stats

Hibernians

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Naxxar Lions

D. Xuereb 30'

Lucas Villela 22', 13'

E. Bolaños 38'

Edson Farias 4'

3/9/2025

League #393 · Closing - 9Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hibernians43%

×Draw26%

Naxxar Lions31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HiberniansExpected goals in this matchNaxxar Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Hibernians

1.44

Naxxar Lions

1.19

Hibernians creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

1.39

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Hibernians

1.39

Naxxar Lions

1.00

allows per match

Hibernians

1.39

Naxxar Lions

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hibernians+0.00on par

Naxxar Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernians ↓

Naxxar Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hibernians or draw

69%

Hibernians or Naxxar Lions

74%

Draw or Naxxar Lions

57%

Winning margin

Hibernians wins by 2+

21%

Naxxar Lions wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hibernians 1+ goals

76%

Hibernians 2+ goals

42%

Hibernians 3+ goals

18%

Naxxar Lions 1+ goals

70%

Naxxar Lions 2+ goals

33%

Naxxar Lions 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hibernians (draw refunded)

58%

Naxxar Lions (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernians at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Naxxar Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernians attack 1.39 + Naxxar Lions defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Naxxar Lions attack 1.00 + Hibernians defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hibernians scores more

43%

level

26%

Naxxar Lions scores more

31%

Hibernians at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hibernians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

13'

22'

24'

30'

38'

72'

80'

B. Sane

83'

O. Opajobi← B. Sané

90'

J. Portelli← M. Ellul

90'

T. Eviparker← S. Sorokin

Hibernians

Naxxar

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: B. Nišević

72'▲Miullen←▼D. Xuereb

90'▲J. Portelli←▼M. Ellul

90'▲T. Eviparker←▼S. Sorokin

Hibernians substitutes

MiullenPortelliEviparkerCurmiCamilleriMuscatSaccoChetcutiSultanaAbelaCaruana

Manager: G. Vella

83'▲O. Opajobi←▼B. Sané

Naxxar Lions substitutes

OpajobiFenechBonannoHaberCassarYamaguchiBonannoFarrugiaHernándezFenechMicallef