Hibernians 8–0 Kercem Ajax: Result & Stats

Hibernians

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Kercem Ajax

Jairo Morillas 80'

J. Grech 74', 11'

D. Vella 68'

Y. Muritala 54'

Thaylor Lubanzadio 42'

A. Diakité 23'

J. Degabriele 15'

2/15/2023

FA Trophy · Round of 16Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hibernians76%

×Draw12%

Kercem Ajax11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HiberniansExpected goals in this matchKercem Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.78

1.50

Hibernians

3.78

Kercem Ajax

1.50

Hibernians creates 152% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.89

creates per match

2.67

0.33

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Hibernians

2.89

Kercem Ajax

2.67

allows per match

Hibernians

0.33

Kercem Ajax

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hibernians+0.00on par

Kercem Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernians ↓

Kercem Ajax →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Hibernians or draw

89%

Hibernians or Kercem Ajax

88%

Draw or Kercem Ajax

24%

Winning margin

Hibernians wins by 2+

59%

Kercem Ajax wins by 2+

Team goals

Hibernians 1+ goals

97%

Hibernians 2+ goals

88%

Hibernians 3+ goals

70%

Kercem Ajax 1+ goals

78%

Kercem Ajax 2+ goals

44%

Kercem Ajax 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hibernians (draw refunded)

87%

Kercem Ajax (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hibernians at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Kercem Ajax away — creates 2.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hibernians attack 2.89 + Kercem Ajax defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.78

Kercem Ajax attack 2.67 + Hibernians defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hibernians scores more

76%

level

12%

Kercem Ajax scores more

11%

Hibernians at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hibernians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

15'

23'

42'

46'

B. Kristensen← J. Degabriele

46'

Y. Muritala← A. Agius

54'

Y. Muritala

58'

J. Zerafa← Gabri Izquier

58'

Jairo Morillas← Robinho

68'

D. Vella

72'

M. Ellul← Thaylor Lubanzadio

72'

C. Attard← O. Rolović

74'

J. Grech

80'

Jairo Morillas

Hibernians

Kercem

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Lubanzadi

⚽2

Grech

⚽

Diakité

⚽

▼

Degabriel

▼

Robinho

Manager: S. Vella

46'▲B. Kristensen←▼J. Degabriele

46'▲Y. Muritala←▼A. Agius

58'▲J. Zerafa←▼Gabri Izquier

58'▲Jairo Morillas←▼Robinho

72'▲M. Ellul←▼Thaylor Lubanzadio

Hibernians substitutes

KristensenMuritalaZerafaMorillasEllulBorgHerreraApapHaber

Manager: E. Vella

72'▲C. Attard←▼O. Rolović

Kercem Ajax substitutes

AttardBriffaBugejaAttardVella