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Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans — League #393 2026

Hibernians
Hibernians
Preview
16:00
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
10/10/2026League #393League #393 · Round 7
47%
Hamrun Spartans
model favours
25%28%47%

Hamrun Spartans score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hibernians25%
×Draw28%
Hamrun Spartans47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernians
0.87
Hamrun Spartans
1.31

Hamrun Spartans creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hibernians
1.41
Hamrun Spartans
1.33

allows per match

Hibernians
1.29
Hamrun Spartans
0.33

finishing

Hibernians+0.00on par
Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernians ↓

Hamrun Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hibernians or draw
53%
Hibernians or Hamrun Spartans
72%
Draw or Hamrun Spartans
75%

Winning margin

Hibernians wins by 2+
8%
Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hibernians 1+ goals
58%
Hibernians 2+ goals
22%
Hibernians 3+ goals
6%
Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals
73%
Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals
38%
Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hibernians (draw refunded)
35%
Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernians at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Hamrun Spartans away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernians attack 1.41 + Hamrun Spartans defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.87

Hamrun Spartans attack 1.33 + Hibernians defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hibernians scores more
25%
level
28%
Hamrun Spartans scores more
47%

Hamrun Spartans at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hamrun Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hamrun Spartans’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hibernians
LWDDL
Spartans
LDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans — Match Preview

Hibernians face Hamrun Spartans on October 10, 2026 in this League #393 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.