Hamrun Spartans 1–2 Hibernians: Result & Stats

Hamrun Spartans

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hibernians

J. Mbong 57'

Lucas Villela 43' (pen)

J. Degabriele 31'

5/14/2025

FA Trophy · Semi-finalsTa'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamrun Spartans64%

×Draw20%

Hibernians16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamrun SpartansExpected goals in this matchHibernians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.94

Hamrun Spartans

2.13

Hibernians

0.94

Hamrun Spartans creates 127% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

3.13

creates per match

1.63

0.25

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Hamrun Spartans

3.13

Hibernians

1.63

allows per match

Hamrun Spartans

0.25

Hibernians

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Hibernians+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamrun Spartans ↓

Hibernians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hamrun Spartans or draw

84%

Hamrun Spartans or Hibernians

80%

Draw or Hibernians

36%

Winning margin

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

41%

Hibernians wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

88%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

63%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

35%

Hibernians 1+ goals

61%

Hibernians 2+ goals

24%

Hibernians 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

80%

Hibernians (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamrun Spartans at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

Hibernians away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamrun Spartans attack 3.13 + Hibernians defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Hibernians attack 1.63 + Hamrun Spartans defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hamrun Spartans scores more

64%

level

20%

Hibernians scores more

16%

Hamrun Spartans at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hamrun Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

J. Degabriele

40'

R. Prsa

43'

Lucas VillelaPenalty

46'

S. Xerri← Talison

57'

J. Mbong

64'

Eder← J. Čađenović

70'

Aléx Bruno← J. Degabriele

70'

D. Xuereb← A. Silas

76'

M. Ellul← Miullen

80'

C. Menacho← R. Mihana

90+6'

O. Bjelicic

90'

S. Sorokin← B. Kristensen

Hamrun

Hibernians

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Zinnari

46'▲S. Xerri←▼Talison

64'▲Eder←▼J. Čađenović

80'▲C. Menacho←▼R. Mihana

Hamrun Spartans substitutes

XerriEderMenachoBuhagiarCélioLetherbyVellaHiliSciclunaEllulBorg

Manager: B. Nišević

70'▲Aléx Bruno←▼J. Degabriele

70'▲D. Xuereb←▼A. Silas

76'▲M. Ellul←▼Miullen

90'▲S. Sorokin←▼B. Kristensen

Hibernians substitutes

BrunoXuerebEllulSorokinFalconeSaccoChukunyereOhakaPortelliAbelaEviparker

FA Trophy: Hamrun Spartans 1–2 Hibernians

Hibernians beat Hamrun Spartans 2-1 in FA Trophy on May 14, 2025.

Goals: J. Degabriele (31'), Lucas Villela (43' pen), J. Mbong (57').

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.

Hamrun Spartans vs Hibernians — FA Trophy 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Trophy: Hamrun Spartans 1–2 Hibernians